The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is having a profound impact on the plastic resins market, said Dow in its first-quarter earnings call.
Chief Operating Officer Karen Carter noted that polyethylene pricing rose $0.05 per pound in January and ticked up another $0.10 in March.
A $0.30 increase is proposed for April with another $0.20 on the table for May. Around half of global ethylene and polyethylene supply is offline,
constrained, or directly impacted by the conflict, added CEO Jim Fitterling.
Price inflation may be good news for North American producers like Dow with lower-cost feedstocks, but analysts appeared concerned about how
durable those gains are if demand weakens or if supply unexpectedly returns.
That seems unlikely given the current outlook. The war is no short-term disruption: Dow management said the supply shock is already
reshaping global chemical markets, lifting raw material costs, and tightening availability across Asia and Europe.
Dow expects the disruption to persist throughout 2026, with higher oil and naphtha prices steepening the global cost curve and forcing producers worldwide to raise prices or reduce output.
Dow’s earlier modeling suggested it could take 275 days or longer for supply chains to normalize, Fitterling said during the call, adding that conditions may have worsened since then.